Hmmm....Menendez Seat Now Only "Leans" Democratic?

And that's from the New York Times, no less. Via MMM, we see that Nate Silver now classifies Bob Menendez's (D-La Raza) Senate seat as one of two races nationally that have shifted in favor of Republicans:

In New Jersey, Robert Menendez, a Democrat, has middling approval ratings and is below 50 percent in the polls against the most likely Republican nominee, State Senator Joseph Kyrillos. Mr. Kyrillos would need to catch some breaks to win the race — his fund-raising has lagged Mr. Menendez’s so far, and he might need Mr. Romney to be more competitive in New Jersey than Republican presidential candidates have been in recent years. Still, there is a plausible path to an upset, and so we now classify the race as Likely Democrat rather than Safe Democrat.


Some commentary from the polling:

Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez leads State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, the Republican challenger, 45 - 35 percent...
Independents back Menendez 39 - 33 percent...
Menendez gets a 44 - 30 percent job approval rating... 
New Jersey voters have a 37 - 26 percent favorable opinion of Menendez, while 36 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Kyrillos, 75 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.


Points to ponder:

-A 44% job approval is well "below 50%"...and this in a state with a 600K+ Democratic registration advantage, no less

-only  37% of New Jersey residents have a "favorable opinion" of Menendez?  Sweet Zombie Jesus, even Newt Gingrich laughs at those numbers!

-after two terms, 36% of those polled don't know enough about Menendez to form an opinion?  Talk about a lack of marketplace penetration, one that can be easily exploited by a canny opponent...

-75%o of the locals have no idea who Joe Kyrillos is.  Which means he can, given enough time and money, shape that opinion, assuming he moves faster than Menendez

-Chris Christie is a powerhouse political figure in New Jersey.  He will stump for Kyrillos, and help raise money for him ($600K so far).  Another guy who knows a bit about money is helping out Kyrillos. Goes by the name of Mitt Romney....


And we haven't even gotten into the stench of cronyism and corruption that surrounds Menendez like dirt follows Pig-pen...(much more here)

"A plausible path to an upset"?

Nate, I reckon you understate the case...this is gonna be one to watch...